Hey, everyone. I'm going to be adding to this post later, but I wanted to get this part posted before the polls close in Virginia at 7 p.m. EST.
I predict that Bob McDonnell will win the Virginia Governor's race by 15 points or more. The Deeds campaign has failed to get out the vote in any reasonable sense, and reports are he will even lose the liberal-leaning northeastern portion of the State. In fact, McDonnell wins by nearly 20 points, I would be unsurprised. This electorate is far more conservative, older and whiter than last year's. More McCain voters are coming out. Many Obama voters in this State would never have even registered if Obama's team were not as ruthlessly efficient as it was. That is why this longtime GOP stronghold went Blue last year, in addition to shifting demographics. I doubt Hillary Clinton would have won Virginia (although she could very well have won West Virginia, but that's for another day).
I predict that Chris Christie will win the New Jersey Governor's race narrowly. Corzine and the Democratic machine may have good get-out-the-vote infrastructure, but independents do not like Corzine. And Obama is not on the ticket. Again, angry McCain voters are far more motivated to vote than Obama voters, and some Obama voters are fed up with Corzine, too. Also, Daggett will not play a major factor. This is not a Perot situation. In fact, more Daggett supporters consider Corzine their second choice than Christie. This will be a nail-biter, but last-minute polling shows Christie has the momentum.
NY-23 will not just be a Conservative victory but a decisive one. Scozzafava voters will stay home or move towards Hoffman. Or they'll just vote for her anyway. Independents and conservatives - both Republican and unaffiliated - will move towards Hoffman in this traditionally GOP district.
Mike Bloomberg will win easily - I live in the shadow of New York City. Even people who think Bloomberg shouldn't have extended his term are voting for him. Voter surveys from the pollsters I trust are sparse, but Bloomberg's vast wealth and high approval ratings should propel him to a solid win. I can't give exact figures because there are so many third parties, and again, polling is sparse. Bloomberg could get over 60% and sweep, or he could get a fair 10-point win. Hell, there's even a "Rent Is Too Damn High Party". "Damn" has since been removed from the ballot.
The "everything-but-marriage" initiative will pass in Washington. The anti-same-sex marriage initiative will narrowly pass in Maine.
UPDATE: I was right on everything except NY-23, and I have more to say on New York City in a moment.
NY-23 proves that all politics is (are?) local. The Conservative candidate, Hoffman, did not live in the district and had little grasp of local issues. His opponent, despite being a Democrat in a Republican-heavy district, won because he had neither of these issues. This is still a partial victory, however, because after this debacle of an election, the RNC has pledged not to fund candidates in contested primaries. I feel strongly that there must be a place for moderates in the GOP, but you don't waste them on conservative-leaning districts. Run moderates in areas where they are absolutely needed, like Connecticut - and actual moderates, not Snowe/Collins types who betray conservatism on important fiscal matters.
I was very unsure of the NYC race. I figured Bloomberg would win by less because his opponent was black and drawing heavily from that part of the Democratic base. Also, there were indeed those who liked Bloomberg but thought his term extension was wrong - as evidenced by exit polling showing his approval rating was 20 points higher than the percentage who voted for him. SurveyUSA had a poll showing Bloomberg ahead of Thompson by just nine points, but I figured enough undecideds would break for Bloomberg to give him more than a 10-point lead. As I said in my original analysis - which was far closer to the actual result and I feel stupid for deleting - money can't buy you everything.
I predict that Bob McDonnell will win the Virginia Governor's race by 15 points or more. The Deeds campaign has failed to get out the vote in any reasonable sense, and reports are he will even lose the liberal-leaning northeastern portion of the State. In fact, McDonnell wins by nearly 20 points, I would be unsurprised. This electorate is far more conservative, older and whiter than last year's. More McCain voters are coming out. Many Obama voters in this State would never have even registered if Obama's team were not as ruthlessly efficient as it was. That is why this longtime GOP stronghold went Blue last year, in addition to shifting demographics. I doubt Hillary Clinton would have won Virginia (although she could very well have won West Virginia, but that's for another day).
I predict that Chris Christie will win the New Jersey Governor's race narrowly. Corzine and the Democratic machine may have good get-out-the-vote infrastructure, but independents do not like Corzine. And Obama is not on the ticket. Again, angry McCain voters are far more motivated to vote than Obama voters, and some Obama voters are fed up with Corzine, too. Also, Daggett will not play a major factor. This is not a Perot situation. In fact, more Daggett supporters consider Corzine their second choice than Christie. This will be a nail-biter, but last-minute polling shows Christie has the momentum.
NY-23 will not just be a Conservative victory but a decisive one. Scozzafava voters will stay home or move towards Hoffman. Or they'll just vote for her anyway. Independents and conservatives - both Republican and unaffiliated - will move towards Hoffman in this traditionally GOP district.
Mike Bloomberg will win easily - I live in the shadow of New York City. Even people who think Bloomberg shouldn't have extended his term are voting for him. Voter surveys from the pollsters I trust are sparse, but Bloomberg's vast wealth and high approval ratings should propel him to a solid win. I can't give exact figures because there are so many third parties, and again, polling is sparse. Bloomberg could get over 60% and sweep, or he could get a fair 10-point win. Hell, there's even a "Rent Is Too Damn High Party". "Damn" has since been removed from the ballot.
The "everything-but-marriage" initiative will pass in Washington. The anti-same-sex marriage initiative will narrowly pass in Maine.
UPDATE: I was right on everything except NY-23, and I have more to say on New York City in a moment.
NY-23 proves that all politics is (are?) local. The Conservative candidate, Hoffman, did not live in the district and had little grasp of local issues. His opponent, despite being a Democrat in a Republican-heavy district, won because he had neither of these issues. This is still a partial victory, however, because after this debacle of an election, the RNC has pledged not to fund candidates in contested primaries. I feel strongly that there must be a place for moderates in the GOP, but you don't waste them on conservative-leaning districts. Run moderates in areas where they are absolutely needed, like Connecticut - and actual moderates, not Snowe/Collins types who betray conservatism on important fiscal matters.
I was very unsure of the NYC race. I figured Bloomberg would win by less because his opponent was black and drawing heavily from that part of the Democratic base. Also, there were indeed those who liked Bloomberg but thought his term extension was wrong - as evidenced by exit polling showing his approval rating was 20 points higher than the percentage who voted for him. SurveyUSA had a poll showing Bloomberg ahead of Thompson by just nine points, but I figured enough undecideds would break for Bloomberg to give him more than a 10-point lead. As I said in my original analysis - which was far closer to the actual result and I feel stupid for deleting - money can't buy you everything.
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